Vietnam’s total import-export turnover in the first 10 months of 2026 reached $1,010.6 billion, up 32.3% year-on-year, surpassing the $1 trillion mark for the first time. This milestone places Vietnam among the top 15 economies with the largest trade scale globally. However, enhancing added value and the competitiveness of domestic enterprises remains a significant challenge.
Vietnam’s Import-Export Surpasses $1 Trillion for the First Time
According to statistical data, Vietnam’s total merchandise import-export turnover in the first 10 months of 2026 reached $1,010.6 billion, representing a 32.3% increase compared to the same period in 2025. This marks the first time Vietnam’s merchandise trade activity has crossed the $1 trillion threshold.
In October 2026 alone, total import-export turnover was estimated at $122.2 billion, surging by 47.6% year-on-year.
Notably, export growth was recorded across both the domestic economic sector and the foreign direct investment (FDI) sector. The processing and manufacturing industry continued to play a leading role, accounting for 87.4% of total export turnover.
Many of Vietnam’s major export markets—including China, the United States, the EU, South Korea, and ASEAN—recorded positive growth.
Evaluating these results, economic expert Le Quoc Phuong noted that with trade turnover exceeding $1 trillion, Vietnam has joined the group of the top 15 economies by trade scale globally and stands as the only economy in ASEAN to achieve this position.
This achievement not only reinforces Vietnam’s standing in international trade but also highlights its increasingly vital role in the global production, supply, and distribution network.
According to expert Le Quoc Phuong, robust import-export growth reflects Vietnam’s deep economic integration with countries worldwide. Concurrently, Vietnam is emerging as a critical hub in the global supply chain, attracting major corporations for investment and production.
This process also creates opportunities for domestic enterprises to enhance production capacity, expand business operations, and integrate more deeply into international value chains.
Strong Export Growth Still Heavily Reliant on the FDI Sector
Despite positive outcomes, Vietnam’s import-export structure still reveals certain limitations, notably a heavy reliance on foreign-invested enterprises.
According to expert Le Quoc Phuong, although export turnover has grown rapidly and reached a massive scale, Vietnam’s export quality remains disproportionate to its potential.
Currently, the FDI sector accounts for roughly 80% of total export turnover, while domestic enterprises contribute only about 20%. Export activities of local businesses are predominantly concentrated in agriculture, forestry, fishery, and wood products.
Meanwhile, high-tech, high-value-added industries with major export turnovers are still primarily driven by the FDI sector.
This indicates that the capacity of Vietnamese enterprises to participate in the global supply chain remains limited. Many domestic companies are still mainly engaged in processing and assembly, failing to master core technologies, design, and the production of high-value-added items.
Notably, October 2026 marked the second consecutive month of trade surplus for Vietnam, reaching $6.8 billion. However, for the 10-month period overall, the merchandise trade balance still registered a deficit of approximately $12.7 billion.
These figures indicate that merchandise trade continues to maintain positive growth momentum, yet improving export quality and upgrading domestic production capacity remain urgent requirements.
Objectives to Raise the Proportion of Exports by Domestic Enterprises
To elevate the quality of trade growth, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is drafting the Strategy for Goods Import and Export to 2030, with a Vision to 2045.
Under the draft strategy, Vietnam targets an average annual growth rate of 15% – 16% in merchandise export turnover during the 2026–2030 period. Meanwhile, imports are projected to grow by an average of 12% – 13% annually.
A key strategic orientation is to elevate the role of domestic enterprises while increasing the content of processing, technology, and domestic value in exported goods.
Specifically, the proportion of export turnover generated by domestic enterprises in the country’s total export turnover aims to reach about 28% – 30% by 2030 and rise to 38% – 40% by 2045.
Regarding trade scale, the draft outlines three export growth scenarios up to 2030:
- Low scenario: Export turnover reaches approximately $765 billion.
- Medium scenario: Export turnover reaches approximately $953.7 billion.
- High scenario: Export turnover reaches approximately $1,041.1 billion.
These targets necessitate expanding export scale in tandem with strengthening domestic production capacity, developing processing and manufacturing industries, and boosting the competitiveness of Vietnamese goods in international markets.
Enhancing Added Value is the Key to Sustainable Exports
Commenting on the targets outlined in the draft Import-Export Strategy, expert Le Quoc Phuong opined that these are ambitious goals requiring synchronized solutions from Vietnam to materialize.
However, according to the expert, the critical factor lies not just in achieving a specific figure in billions of dollars of exports, but in determining how much actual value the economy retains from these exports.
If export turnover climbs high but the localization rate remains low, with domestic businesses mainly engaging in processing and assembly, the actual value retained by the economy will fall short of expectations.
Therefore, Vietnam must focus on strengthening the internal capacity of enterprises, building self-reliance in industry and technology, and gradually transitioning from processing and assembly to higher-value-added stages.
Crucially, domestic enterprises should be encouraged to participate in manufacturing components, accessories, designs, and sub-assemblies for complete products bearing Vietnamese brands.
This is considered a vital pathway for local businesses to elevate their standing in the global supply chain, increase the localization rate, and retain more value from export activities.
In reality, large export turnover is a necessary condition to affirm national trade positioning. However, for trade to truly serve as a driver for sustainable economic growth, Vietnam must shift its focus from quantitative growth to qualitative enhancement.
In the long run, the competitiveness of domestic enterprises, mastery of technology, and the share of domestic added value will be the decisive factors determining the substantive efficiency of Vietnam’s import and export activities.
Source:
https://vov.gov.vn
https://vneconomy.vn
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